As we move quickly into the next backyard gardening grow season it is worth noting market values for food. What is the forecast for 2023?
Let's first consider the past few years.
RECENT FOOD INFLATION, USA
Year | Inflation Rate (% change over year) |
2019 | 1.9 |
2020 | 3.4 |
2021 | 3.9 |
2022 | 9.9 |
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Food Price Outlook 2023, Summary Findings
Prices must come back down, right? We are going to return to normal, right?
Actually food price inflation will continue in 2023 just not at 2022 rates, maybe. See the margin of error below.
USDA FOOD PRICE FORECAST 2023
Category | Inflation Rate % | Range of Prediction |
All Food | 7.1 | 4.2 to 10.1 |
Food at Home | 8.0 | 4.5 to 11.7 |
Food Away from Home | 8.2 | 6.7 to 9.7 |
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Food Price Outlook 2023, Summary Findings
Notice the range. We could experience significantly lower food inflation rates (not price declines mind you) in 2023 compared to 2022. Still, nobody expects 2019 prices anytime soon, if ever again. Moreso, we may yet have higher food inflation compared to 2022.
We all know now that the main culprits for this are: energy policy and prices; government policies of loose money and deficit spending in response to the economic shutdown caused by the government itself; the impact of the western USA drought on cattle prices; and the avian flu of 2022 that spiked poultry prices and particularly egg prices.
So, in addition to the intrinsic value of growing your own food (you know where it came from) and the instrumental value of growing your own food (you must eat to live) there is the added incentive of continuing increases in market values. As I like to preach, avoid the market place as much as is possible. And that is even more important right now.
What are your thoughts? Drop comments below or send me an email at jamie@drslate.com
~Well, let's get to growing y'all! Happy Gardening in 2023~
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